The national bureau of statistics in China has provided
figures about the reduction in work force of China’s population. The figures in
2012 have shown a minor decrease in population as compared to 2011. However, unlikely
the Beijing official demographers are of the opinion, that workforce will
continue to rise till 2016.
Certainly, there are various opinions about the demographics
of Chinese population. Some officials say, that the workforce will experience a
gradual decrease until 2030. There are both positive and negative factors
associated with a reduction in population. When population slows down, it will
have a negative effect on urbanization. Urbanization is one of most adopted
trends that kept on flourishing, since many decades in China. The Government
wants this trend to continue further in future. To support urbanization, the
Chinese Government announced in 2011 - that they will continue to build 20
cities in each of the next 20 years. But, it is likely possible, that
Government won’t be able to accelerate the shift of population from rural to
urban areas. This is simply because the Government has overused it in the past
and many of the rural areas are empty now.
On the other hand, many scholars believe the existence of
middle aged workforce in rural areas, who can be still extracted. The people
who are living in rural areas are those, who do not want shift towards cities,
as they consider themselves better at home. Urbanization has played a
significant role in China’s development in the last few decades. But the simple
fact is, most of the urbanization has already been done. The urbanization
process will continue to show gradual growth in future; however it won’t be of
much help as in previous years.
The decline trend in China’s population will have adverse
effects on its overall economy in future. There’s no one out there to highlight
this fact and try to take necessary steps. China’s one child policy that
started in the 1979 is still active. Many liberals talk about reversing this
policy, however if the policy is changed the economy will show undesirable
effects too.
China’s greatest edge is its massive human resource.
However, if the decline trend in population will continue to grow in coming
years, there will be negative and long lasting effects on economy.
If China’s workforce shows reduction, it will impact to slow
down China’s economy. On a positive side, if there are fewer exports from China
to US, it will create more jobs for US working population, who have lost their
jobs due to Chinese products dominating US market. However the US products will
be costly in comparison to Chinese products due to their high manufacturing
cost. On global level, many will experience a slow overall economy and high product
prices, as China is a major contributor to world’s economic prices.
